Tropospheric thermal energy flux is the determinant of global air temperature. This annual ±4 Wm –2 simulation uncertainty is ☑14 × larger than the annual average ∼0.035 Wm –2 change in tropospheric thermal energy flux produced by increasing GHG forcing since 1979. The resulting long-wave cloud forcing (LWCF) error introduces an annual average ±4 Wm –2 uncertainty into the simulated tropospheric thermal energy flux. This error is strongly pair-wise correlated across models, implying a source in deficient theory. A directly relevant GCM calibration metric is the annual average ☑2.1% error in global annual average cloud fraction produced within CMIP5 climate models.
Linear projections are subject to linear propagation of error.
#How to chnage a gcm to iso series#
An extensive series of demonstrations show that GCM air temperature projections are just linear extrapolations of fractional greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. The reliability of general circulation climate model (GCM) global air temperature projections is evaluated for the first time, by way of propagation of model calibration error. SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, Menlo Park, CA, United States.
0 kommentar(er)
